The upcoming Melania Trump documentary, a $40 million project from Amazon and MGM, is allegedly going to flop at the box office. The “Melania” film, which covers the three weeks the first lady experienced before Donald Trump was inaugurated as the president for a second term, is set to premiere at various locations across America on January 29, including the renamed Trump-Kennedy Center. It will then release in theaters nationwide the following day on January 30. But sales for the upcoming movie are apparently dismal, according to several insiders.
Box office predictions for Melania doc’s opening weekend are low
The Melania documentary is allegedly experiencing low ticket sales, particularly for its opening weekend, as noted by several sources speaking on Rob Shuter’s Naughty But Nice Substack.
One insider said, “The studio was expecting a big turnout, but so far it’s not materializing. They may even hold back official box office numbers if the opening is weaker than expected.”
This concurs with recent predictions from BoxOfficePro, a site which specializes in tracking the box office forecasts for upcoming movie releases. For its long-range forecast on January 2, the Melania documentary is only expected to draw in $1 million to $2 million at the domestic box office for its opening weekend.
By comparison, two other Amazon/MGM movies releasing around the same time as the Melania documentary are expected to bring in much more. The film “Mercy” coming out on January 23 has a predicted domestic opening forecast of $15 million to $25 million, while the movie “Crime 101” releasing on February 13 has a forecast of $12 million to $18 million. As a general rule, most film productions need to bring in at least two times its production budget to break even, which would mean “Melania” would need to cross the $80 million mark at the box office for Amazon and MGM to see a profit.
Other insiders agree with this box office assessment and are concerned that the film’s premiere has struggled to make much of a splash, even in states where Donald Trump has majority support.
“In New York, only a handful of seats have been booked,” one source said. “Palm Beach is no better. Even in Trump country, theaters are practically empty.”
As one insider put it, the hype surrounding the Melania film doesn’t necessarily lead to audiences shelling out the cash to see it at theaters. “It’s a high profile project,” an insider admits, “but hype doesn’t always translate into ticket sales. People are curious, but they’re not rushing to buy tickets yet.”
This is despite the fact that the president has previously claimed that getting a ticket to the film’s Kennedy Center premiere has been difficult. He said that hockey legend Wayne Gretzky and his wife Janet wanted to attend, but that it’s a “very hard ticket” to get. Trump also called his wife’s film “incredible” after seeing “pieces of it.” That said, a glitzy premiere for the movie may not mean much when it comes to ordinary Americans wanting to see the film in theaters.
Another issue the Melania movie faces in terms of box office sales is that it’s slated to release on Amazon Prime at some point, where it will likely be offered for free as part of the subscription service. According to Yahoo Finance, nearly 75% of US shoppers have an Amazon Prime subscription, which means that those interested in seeing the movie can wait to see it later on demand.
Various sources have previously said that Melania Trump has deliberately erased any mention of Ivanka Trump from the film and has not invited Trump’s eldest daughter to the Kennedy Center premiere too.
